Deconstructing China-Pakistan Nexus: Myth of Neutrality

While China is currently in a deniable mood on India’s Operation Sindoor, it is slowly dawning on Beijing that its influence in the South Asian region is gradually slipping from under its feet, assiduously built over decades through an “all-weather friendship” with Pakistan. Moreover, Beijing’s relations with Islamabad are also proving to be a liability as the costs for China’s reputation are increasing given the relentless terror attacks emanating from Pakistan.

Firstly, China began viewing the terrorism issue selectively. India’s Operation Sindoor began with military actions countering terror camps in Pakistan in the wee hours of May 6/7. India stated after the strikes that its operations are “focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature”.

Silence on Pakistan-aided Terrorism

While China did not provide direct support to India in its counter-terrorism efforts, it issued a general statement, by Guo Jiakun, the foreign ministry spokesman, who condemned “all forms of terrorism” soon after the Pahalgam terror attacks that left 26 dead on April 22^nd.

Further, five days after the terror attacks, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi telephoned Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dhar to express solidarity with China’s “ironclad friend” and called for a “swift and fair investigation” into the terror attacks. No accountability of Pakistan was called for nor any investigation, leave alone action, on terror camps in Pakistan was made. No statement was ever made to support India in countering terrorism, exposing the one-sided view of China on this issue.

China’s initial response on terrorism is thus predictable. After the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in 1979-89, China’s military intelligence, along with Pakistan’s and the US agencies, have trained the Mujahideen who subsequently landed in several terror outfits in Fatah and other regions.  China is thus directly involved in training these terrorists at one time.

However, China has its own national interests in this regard. China has been happy as long as Pakistan handed over Uighur activists from Xinjiang and trained in Pakistan-Afghanistan areas. However, Beijing took no universal responsibility, apart from anodyne statements such as after Pahalgam attacks, to control and eliminate terror outfits in the region.

Selective Approach

China did conduct counter-terrorism exercises with Pakistan. However, these were mainly confined to hunting the Uighurs. For instance, China and Pakistan armies conducted a highly publicised counter-terror exercise just besides the hideout of Osama bin Laden at Abbottabad but surprisingly could not trace him. This job was left to the US commandos later.  Thus, China’s “Nelson’s Eye” attitude towards Pakistan-based terrorism was exposed further in this incident.

Chinese weapons in Pakistan’s Arsenal

Secondly, given the statements and overwhelming disinformation campaign in the Chinese media even today, China’s main concern has been on how its military equipment, that is supplied to Pakistan, performed. As an aspiring “merchant of death” and an emerging defence equipment supplier to the Global South countries, Beijing is singularly obsessed with this issue.

China’s bloggers, for instance, were in jubilation when it was reported that its J-10 C and JF-17 fighter aircrafts allegedly downed an Indian Rafale aircraft in the initial stages of the conflict. Million of videos and memes were in circulation in Chinese media regarding this incident. No concrete proof was provided by China despite deployment of so many satellites in the military theatre in South Asia.

However, Chinese observers also began questioning Pakistan armed forces inability to pitch the Chinese equipment such as HQ-9 surface-to air missile batteries, PL-15E air-to-air missiles or Wing Loong III drones against India. India had a cake walk in destroying Pakistan air bases deep inside the country. This is despite China’s active and live provision of command-and-control support to Pakistan and the deployment of satellites to enhance such interactions. Pakistan is also a member of China-led APSCO (Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organisation), and Beijing helped launch a variety of satellites for Pakistan.

Several Chinese experts expressed disappointment on the poor performance of the Chinese equipment that constituted more than 80 percent of Pakistan’s inventory and costing more than $21 billion. Pakistan theatre performance thus upset China’s arms bazaar prospects.

Thirdly, at the strategic level, China had incorporated Pakistan into several of its outreach programmes like China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (investing $52 billion so far), Boao Forum for Asia, Himalayan Quad, Community of Shared Destiny and others. Beijing spent enormous diplomatic, financial and military resources to prop up Islamabad.

However, after the May 9/10 devastating Indian attacks on frontline Pakistan’s air bases and other facilities deep inside the country, Pakistan’s military wilted away and hoisted the white flag without seeking guidance from Beijing. China was miffed that Pakistan went to the United States leaders for mediation and ceasefire and to Turkey for armaments after the Operation Sindoor struck its infrastructure. Even though, much later on May 19, Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dhar visited China for consultations “on the evolving regional situation in South Asia”, Beijing clearly felt slighted by Islamabad’s actions.

Fourthly, Pakistan’s economic vulnerabilities in the recent times are turning out to be both an opportunity and a challenge for China. China had initiated an Economic Corridor to connect its western regions in Xinjiang with West Asia since 2013. It had invested $52 billion out of an allocated $62 billion in constructing roads, railways, hydro-electricity dams, ports, telecommunication hubs and others. These came at an exorbitant cost for Pakistan – sometimes at 5% interest rates. Thus, while the total external debt of Pakistan is estimated to be around $130 billion, China’s share has increased to nearly $30 billion – that is about 22 % – of Pakistan’s debt. Much of this debt is traced to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In the light of Operation Sindoor and the damage caused to the infrastructure in Pakistan, the latter is expected to turn to Beijing for even more loans. This is expected to further deplete Pakistan’s independent decision-making as well as its economic sovereignty. Ironically, the joint statements of China and Pakistan call for protecting Pakistan’s sovereignty!

Fifthly, China is noticing a new and resurgent India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s televised speech on May 12 on Operation Sindoor on a “befitting response on our terms only” has created concerns for both Pakistan and China as both would deliberately stall action on terrorists for several years at the UNSC #1267 sanctions committee for effective international legislation and action.

Indeed, in the immediate aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attacks, China and Pakistan removed The Resistance Front, a terror offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba that initially took responsibility for Pahalgam attacks, from the committee report. With PM Modi’s assertion on not distinguishing between state sponsors and terrorists, and targeting terror supports, both are in a dilemma on the implications of such policy.

Nuclear Nexus

PM Modi’s second assertion that India “will not tolerate any nuclear blackmail” was also a message to China which had built Pakistan’s nuclear programme. China had actively proliferated weapons of mass destruction to its “all-weather friend” both in the nuclear and its delivery platforms, emboldening Islamabad to threaten India at will with a “first use” doctrine. In several tensions between India and Pakistan in the last two decades, Pakistan’s military and political leaders have threatened to use nuclear weapons against India. Islamabad would not have this gumption without the backup of Beijing.

PM Modi’s third assertion that “if there are talks with Pakistan, it will be only on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK)” also is unnerving Beijing which is in occupation since 1963 of Kashmir valleys such as Aghil, Shimshal, Ruskam and Sakshgam amounting to about 24,000 sq.km. in the last decade. China has been consolidating its position in these areas with underground defence networks, military deployments and infrastructure in violation of its own statement of March 1963. While China demands every other nation to observe Beijing’s red lines on its sovereignty and territorial integrity, it had turned a blind eye to others’ sovereignty issues. A resurgent India is a bugbear to Beijing.

Myth of China’s Neutrality

India’s Operation Sindoor campaign against Pakistan’s sponsoring of terrorism has provided both opportunities and challenges to China. While China painted a picture of no direct involvement in the conflict, decades of propping up its “all-weather friend” has left traces of its vigorous involvement in Pakistan in active diplomatic assistance, protection of Islamabad in international fora, overwhelming military assistance and joint coordination, or even massive disinformation campaign along with Pakistan on India.

Looking ahead, India’s military operation on Pakistan has provided an opportunity to China in making Pakistan dependent in various aspects. However, the massive destruction of Pakistan air bases and military equipment following the Operation Sindoor had posed challenges to China’s defence equipment credibility and to its own reputation for backing the terrorists based in Pakistan. Operation Sindoor’s collateral damage is to China’s ability to project itself as a responsible power in the world. China’s carefully painted picture of neutrality in India-Pakistan conflict is thus shattered.